Polling Populations in Times of Conflict

On June 3, I posted a striking public opinion survey published in the English edition of Haaretz, Israel’s leading liberal newspaper. The poll indicated that a large majority of Jewish Israelis supported the expulsion of Gazans—an alarming finding that, I believed, merited attention and analysis. The poll’s author is a respected scholar, and my intention in sharing the post was to contribute to a broader reflection on the direction of Israeli political culture.

The post generated substantial engagement on LinkedIn. However, soon after, several prominent researchers raised important concerns about the survey’s methodology and interpretation. Their critiques were thoughtful and grounded, highlighting the many challenges inherent in conducting reliable public opinion research in polarized and emotionally charged environments.

Some of the most important concerns had to do with the sample itself, which appeared to include more younger, right-leaning people than warranted, and with apparently illogical responses, in which people identified with the political center-left offered highly aggressive views. They also had concerns about question wording.

The critics said that another contemporaneous poll had found much lower - if still shockingly high - rates of support for the forced relocation of Gazans. They suggested that these views could be short-term opinions generated by the ongoing crisis, rather than durable, long-term opinions.

In response, and in the interest of analytical integrity, I decided to remove the original LinkedIn post. My aim was never to sensationalize, but rather to invite deeper reflection on the historical and cultural forces shaping contemporary Israeli society.

I remain committed to careful, evidence-based discussion of issues relating to political violence, national identity, and human rights. In that spirit, I believe debates over this and similar surveys should be respectful, methodologically sound, and historically informed.

For those with access to Haaretz, I have included links to three relevant pieces below (all behind a paywall):

• Original survey report

• Methodological critique

• Defense of the survey by a veteran pollster

I have reached out to the survey's principal researcher and asked for more details about sampling methods, survey questions, and data. He promised to get back to me soon, and I look forward to exploring the survey in greater detail when he does.

About James Ron

James Ron is an international research consultant who taught for 22 years in higher education in Canada, Mexico, and the US. Before that, he was a consultant for Human Rights Watch and other international agencies and reported for the Associated Press.

Learn more about James on his website and LinkedIn profile. To read his scholarly articles, please visit James' ResearchGate and Academia.edu profiles. To learn how other scholars have used his work, please visit his Google Scholar page. More information on James Ron's publications can be found on PhilPeople, ORCID, SemanticsScholar, and the Web of Science.