James Ron - In 2003, My Book Anticipated the Gaza Horror

In 2003, I published my book with the University of California Press, Frontiers and Ghettos: State Violence in Serbia and Israel. Unfortunately, a lot of what we see today in Gaza was anticipated in that volume.

James Ron's Book, "Frontiers and Ghettos," University of California Press

The book compared patterns of political violence in Serbia and Israel, asking why state violence varies depending on geography and “institutional environment.”

My central question was, "Might Israel commit violence against Palestinians similar to the violence Serbia supported against Bosniaks during Bosnia's 1992–95 war? If so, under what conditions?"

I noted that both Serbians and Jews carried the deep scars of Nazi and Nazi-collaborator persecution during World War II. These horrific experiences of mass victimization then shaped each community's collective memory and identity in powerful ways.

At the same time, both Serbia and Israel were influenced by two opposing forces: a chauvinistic ethno-nationalist movement and a more tolerant, universalist current. In Serbia, those universalist currents were rooted in the legacy of socialism, while in Israel, they were grounded in a tradition of political liberalism.

I wondered, "Under what geopolitical conditions would the ethnonationalist tendencies in each community predominate, leading to destructive violence against ethnic outsiders?"

To answer these questions, I began by distinguishing in the Serb case between two different geographic zones of violence:

• Serbia: In the early 1990s, paramilitary violence against Muslims in the Sandzak (inside Serbia’s borders) was far less severe than violence across the border in Bosnia.

• Why? Because Serbia treated the Sandzak as a zone of law and order under its sovereignty, while Bosnia was treated as a “frontier” where lawlessness was tolerated and encouraged.

The Sandzak area in Serbia and Montenegro has a large Muslim population.

One striking case illustrated this difference. Serbian paramilitaries kidnapped and killed Muslim citizens of Serbia — but only when their train briefly crossed into Bosnian territory. Inside Serbia, those same citizens were protected by law, but in Bosnia, they were exposed to lethal frontier violence.

Using the same geographic and institutional framework, I analyzed Israel’s policies:

• West Bank and Gaza (1980s–1990s): These were under direct Israeli control, incorporated through laws and regulations as subordinate territories. I labeled them “ghettos.”

• South Lebanon Security Zone (1985–2000): Treated as a “frontier,” where Israeli forces permitted or engaged in far harsher violence.

The "Security Zone," 1985-2000. Taken from "Time to Leave the Insecurity Zone,"

The danger for Palestinians, I argued, would rise if Gaza or parts of the West Bank ever slipped from full Israeli military control. At that point, the ghetto could transform into a frontier — exposing Palestinian civilians to the threat of far greater violence.

Tragically, that prediction has come to pass today.

After the deadly October 2023 Hamas attack on Israeli communities and military bases near Gaza, a radical right-wing coalition in Israel unleashed dramatic, frontier-style violence against Palestinians in Gaza. The result is that Israel’s current military actions in Gaza bear disturbing similarities to the violence Serbia supported in Bosnia during the 1990s.

Map of Israel and the Palestinian occupied territories (West Bank & Gaza)

There are differences, of course, including a much heavier use of advanced and highly destructive weaponry in Gaza, as well as the reliance on official Israeli forces, rather than the nascent Bosnian Serb army and Serbian-based paramilitaries. And Hamas, of course, is far more heavily dug in under and amidst the Gazan citizenry than the nascent Bosniak militia and then army ever was.

Still, the disregard for civilian well-being, and the treatment of non-combatants as furniture to be moved around at will - at great cost to their well-being - is reminiscent of the war in Bosnia.

The argument of Frontiers and Ghettos was that geography and institutional environments matter in shaping state violence.

What we see today in Gaza is, sadly, a confirmation of that claim. The West Bank - which is increasingly being folded into Israel through the actions of its government and its allied settler lobby - is not being destroyed to the same extent as Gaza. Although Israeli troops and settlers do carry out deadly violence in the West Bank, they are not engaging in the wholesale, Gaza-style levelling of urban centers and civilian infrastructure.

The West Bank, for now, remains what I called in the book a "ghetto" within the Israeli control zone, while Israel externalized Gaza in 2005 and reconstituted the area - legally, psychologically, and institutionally - as a "frontier."Frontiers are at huge risk when they find themselves perched next to a militarily powerful state containing strong ethnonationalist currents.

For those interested in exploring my arguments in greater detail, I invite you to read the book.

A version of this essay was first published by UC Press as James Ron’s blog post, “A Sad Prediction Born Out by Events." Read the original here.

About James Ron

James Ron is an author and social scientist whose career has spanned military service, human rights investigations, journalism, and university teaching. He is working on a memoir, Azimuth, which reflects on a life lived at the intersection of political violence, moral responsibility, exile, and personal transformation.

Learn more at www.jamesron.com | www.jamesron.org | www.jamesron.net

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